Quantum: Production of Solar Roof - Automotive for Fisker Automotive -

As a long time holder of QTWW, I wanted to share news on the Karma

Quantum to Begin Series Production of Solar Roof for Fisker Automotive -- IRVINE, Calif., Nov. 17, 2010 /PRNewswire/ --

This stock used to be very volatile, ranging from $1.10 to $1.70 per share on a regular basis. In turn, I would increase the quantity I hold at the lower end, and sell off some when it peaked.

Currently trading at $0.50, I have bought on the way down and still hold this stock, with buy limits set for .44 and sell limits at .61 due to price movements that follow the major index trends.

Other penny stock trade ideas:
QASP - set to buy more at .0015 and set to sell portions at .0031 and .0036
BCON - a long as it has recently hit .20, recent highs of .43

AMLN - in at 10.86

During earnings season, I like to stay out of it except for my long term holdings.  I do make short term plays on investors' over reaction though.

I just saw this article:


Amylin shares pop on analyst upgrade

October 27, 2010 4:51 PM ET
NEW YORK (AP) - Shares of Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. jumped 10 percent Wednesday after an analyst suggested investors had oversold the stock last week when Amylin announced a delay of its highly anticipated diabetes drug Bydureon.

Read full article

Trades 4/7/10

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As the Dow nears its 11,000 ceiling and bounces off of it, many have been wondering where all this strength is coming from.  Many of the stocks I regularly trade have been active, yet those I hold have been penny bound.

Having bought both sides of the coin on UAUA, it has stagnated in the 19.20 to 20.20 range after jumping $6.00 since I last sold the stock.   The options I hold are a small fraction of the gains made, selling it on a trailing stop in January. 

The surprise has been RDN, which is usually very volatile and rarely stays at its top or bottom for more than a few days.

After holding at $224 for two weeks,  AAPL jumped again.  I sold this one in January for a $20 per share gain and neglected to buy the dip at 190 again.

Yesterday, SSN popped for its second leg up, hitting .85 - sure to be short lived.  See the chart below. 

Current Holdings

Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 0.9179 0.686 -0.2319 N/A
BCON Stock 0.44 0.4422 0.0022 N/A
UAL.Apr.25.Call Option 0.18 0.04 -0.14 N/A
RDN.Apr.10.Put Option 0.10 0.05 -0.05 N/A
UAL.Apr.15.Put Option 0.23 0.04 -0.19 N/A


I have always doubled up on SSN, but in this case, I would have to say I did not see the second run coming.   SSN hit .37 about 5 days after I sold it at it's peak of .57

I have made the mistake of getting back into this stock too soon many times. I normally buy back in anywhere below .33 and sell between .55 - .60 with .30 being the absolute bottom over the years.   Last time, I held through the dilution and, of course, doubled up with a cost basis of .27 / sale at .57

The following chart shows where I have bought in (Green) and where I got out (red). 



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Update 3/17/10

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Both buy limits triggered today and I picked up another couple K of QTWW. 

Current Holdings


Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 0.9179 0.6545 -0.2633 N/A
BCON Stock 0.44 0.4151 -0.0249 Stop 0.37
UAUA APR 25 CALL Option 0.18 0.18 0.00 N/A
UAUA APR 15 PUT Option 0.23 0.22 -0.01 N/A

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Trades 3/17/10

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The Dow inched near 10,700 again yesterday. If true to form, it should go down from here.  

The price of QTWW hit .68 twice today, and as I mentioned, there is a buy limit set on QTWW at 0.67 in order to lower the basis a bit more.   If that one executes, I will be setting another for .65

Where UAUA is going is anyone's guess, which is why I have options on both sides.  Once a direction is clear, one of those options will be dumped.   Let's hope it doesn't stagnate until mid April.  

I have seen no price movement on TS, AAPL, SSN or GA.  I am looking at shorting GSS if it goes near 4.00 and RDN if it nears 12.00 to 12.50 range.  

Current Holdings

Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.7002 -0.3207 N/A
BCON Stock 0.44 0.41 -0.03 Stop 0.37
UAUA APR 25 CALL Option 0.18 0.22 +0.04 N/A
UAUA APR 15 PUT Option 0.23 0.18 -0.05 N/A
.

Trades 3/15/10

We are still hovering near the peak.  I am not saying that we won't go over the top, but the range has been 10,000 to 10,700 - we'll see.  The Fed meeting could throw things either way.


At open:

Current Holdings

Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.768 -0.2529 N/A
BCON Stock 0.44 0.456 +0.016 Stop 0.37



BCON reported this morning and there is some volatility there.  My feeling is that it will be upward, if people actually read the report.

QTWW has asked for my vote by the 29th of March regarding officers and whether or not to increase available shares to 440 million.

I have been waiting for UAUA to make a move up (or down) since my last double options purchase.  It neared $20 this morning (which is where the call craze was about a month ago), so, I got both sides of the coin today.


Updated Holdings

Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.7205 -0.3004 N/A
BCON Stock 0.44 0.43 -0.01 Stop 0.37
UAUA APR 25 CALL Option 0.18 0.18 0.00 N/A
UAUA APR 15 PUT Option 0.15 0.15 0.00 N/A
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Trades 3/12/10

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A flat day yesterday with a close to the positives. The dow 90 points from it's peak, that is to say, if it continues its pattern range,  10,000 -10,700 .

Watching for a gap down on BCON and will buy another chunk between .39 and .41

I have a GTC buy limit set on QTWW if it dips under .70 - but it doesn't look like the controlling entity is driving it down any further.  They have all but killed any volume whatsoever.  As a matter of fact, there was a 140,000 share spike at close, which could spell the end to this relentless downward trend.


Current Holdings

Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.7685 -0.2270 N/A
BCON Stock 0.44 0.435 -0.005 Stop 0.37

I am watching C which rarely moves but a few cents per day - trading over 1 billion per day now. It could be worth a buy because it usually chooses a direction and stays with it.   I have been burned on that one before and it is more for long term.  I may consider a call, strike 5.00 if I can get it cheap enough. 
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Trades 3/11/10

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As I mentioned, I think we will drop a few hundred points in the next few days.  I was looking at UAUA options as the calls will be hitting their mark soon, but it never quite hit 20.00.   I opted to look at another small cap that I watch.

I set BCON to buy at .44 - which is a break out.   These stocks are not (so) influenced by large changes in the major indexes.  This one has been due for a while, so it should do well.  What worries me is if they make a public offering.   For that reason I will have a stop on it.



Current Holdings

Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.7586 -0.2623 N/A
BCON Stock 0.44 0.44 +0.0 Stop .37

I also plan to buy more if it drops near day's end or gaps down in the morning tomorrow.  Also  note that BCON will have a conference call Monday before the open.   This could cause a fairly big move in price in either direction, but the sell stop will cover us to prevent any large scale losses.
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Trades 3/10/10

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Yesterday, as things peaked, I kept a sell-stop set .02 cents below the current price of SSN.  More than a doubled up, selling it for 0.57.   The stock historically doesn't go much over 0.60, though one time it ran up to 1.08 for a day or two. 

As I said, the Dow has been crawling up near 10,700 and falling - then repeating that cycle.  I am skeptical on buying into those hitting new 52 week highs.   

Current Holdings

Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.75 -0.2709 N/A


I have QTWW set to buy a considerable chunk if it goes to 0.69

I am looking at UAUA put options for April, though they are somewhat expensive still.  

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Trades 3/05/10

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 The market has been in a vicious cycle for weeks now.  Huge falls and then it crawls back up nearing 10,700 (Dow).   I have been out of the market as many of the stocks I track are irratic at best.  

Today, QTWW is in free-fall - the sooner the better.  This stock has one major investor who buys 2 to 3 million shares at a time.  I know, because a single purchase on the L2 live list can only be one person or entity.  I have posted before that we need to watch for large volume spikes.  That is when the tide will turn.

In this 6 month view of QTWW, you will see that news J talked about their non-compliance and the stock ran up.  I patiently owned it then and will patiently own it when it runs again. 


Last year, QTWW stayed in the .65 to .75 range April though August.  This year that won't happen.  Nothing but good news is out and they have many new contracts, plus the Karma will be on the market within 6 months and they are sold out in pre-orders.

 


For the last few weeks, SSN has been gaining ground.  There are new projects and good news coming out every week.  Today: http://bit.ly/c918Xo

Current Holdings

Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.7287 -0.2922 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.4888 +0.2128 N/A
.


Trades 2/18/10

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Looks like we will be crawling back up to 10,700 or higher.  If that's the case, I am out for now until more earnings come out and I see an opportunity.  Updates usually posted at 11:00 - 11:30 a.m. eastern time.  

Current Holdings


Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.82 -0.2009 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.43 +0.154 st 0.35 follow 0.10
UALNO Option 0.10 0.02 -0.08 N/A




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Trades 2/17/10

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Another positive day for the dow.  Still 500 short of the highs we had hit.   The stop set on SSN should be up to .40 now as it trials by .10 cents.   QTWW still under heavy control by one single entity.

Current Holdings

Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.315 -0.1894 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.48 +0.204 st 0.35 follow 0.10
UALNO Option 0.10 0.02 -0.08 N/A


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Trades 2/16/10

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Well the market seems to be without direction.  My stocks don't react accordingly 
Tthere was more good news on SSn - they struck oill and gas. 


QTWW has yet to run up too. 

Current Holdings

Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.8276 -0.1933 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.4115 +0.1355 st 0.35 follow 0.10
UALNO Option 0.10 0.02 -0.08 N/A

---updates to follow--

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Trades 2/12/10

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We got an up day! An 'at-a-boy for the Bulls.   My two small caps didn't move much, which is nice if the market is falling, but not so when the Market pushes upward.

I am still undecided on which way the markets will go.  I am watching UAUA hover at it's 52 week high.  My current puts are considered lost - equal to what my sell stop would have been had I bought it.   I am looking at more puts for March 2010 or possibly shorting it.



Current Holdings
Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.83 -0.1909 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.357 +0.081 N/A
UALNO Option 0.10 0.02 -0.08 N/A


SSN - I have always sold this one tragically early, then watch as I would have tripled the profit I had taken. I will set a sell stop at .35 after SSN breaks .40 (to trail the price by .10)

UAUA - set to sell short at 14.95 in case things fall apart. I will watch put prices and if I can get some puts at .02 to .03 per - I will grab some contracts.  Maybe March, or April.

QTWW will not be sold until the second or third day of the coming run-up - to be sold on a wide trailing stop, in order to give it room to fly.

---update---

Having executed buy limits for the majority of my SSN position at .18 to .22, I am loving this...



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Trades 2/11/10

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It was a fairly choppy, flat day yesterday.  The Dow is showing volatility which is what I like.

SSN broke out and UAUA is hitting new 52-week highs. 

I never recommend making buys during the first 30 minutes of trading.  Ideas will be in the form of an update - if any.



Current Holdings
Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.81 -0.2109 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.37 +0.094 N/A
UALNO Option 0.10 0.02 -0.08 N/A




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Trades 2/10/10

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Normally I thrive on a volatile market such as this.  Honestly I have been on the sidelines for a few weeks as things were flat.   I feel we will continue downward at a crawl, just as we climbed at a crawl, with sudden bursts of activity on the way up. 

Today we see another choppy day, and I am comfortable being heavily invested in two stocks that generally don't follow the Dow or any other index. 


Current Holdings - pre-open

Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.81 -0.2270 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.2625 -0.0135 N/A
UALNO Option 0.10 0.02 -0.08 N/A


--------update-------

SSN broke out today gapping up significantly the news :  Samson Oil & Gas Advises on the Gene #1-22H Well Progress.   This has pushed me well above my initial purchase price. 


As with QTWW, I started buying SSN when it hit .31 and continued - still buying as it reached .20 - and held through a public offering.  This is a low volume stock which I have been trading for over 4 years.  The company is solid and well positioned for its size. 
Current Holdings - 12:00
.
Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.80 -0.2209 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.3543 +0.0783 N/A
UALNO Option 0.10 0.02 -0.08 N/A

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Trades 2/09/10

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Still a lot of sentiment to the negative side today.  The market tried to move up but we got another camel hump. 

Big news for UAUA - all positive for a stock that will not fall anyway.  This breaks all tradition of Airlines dropping after the holidays.  With 900 points shaved off the Dow, UAUA has barely reacted and now I can kiss my put options good-bye.  The loss is the same as if I had bought it and sold on a stop loss. 

Despite oil prices, SSN is holding and QTWW is rising a bit but still under control. 

Current Holdings

Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.81 -0.2270 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.27 -0.006 N/A
UALNO Option 0.10 0.02 -0.08 N/A
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Trades 2/08/10

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The market opened choppy today.  It's anyone's guess as to what the next move will be.  I am comfortable staying on the sidelines for now.  My trading style plays major volatility, so flat days won't see any action from me.  

So far the call limit at 0.21 for TS has not executed.
 SSN and QTWW will run up when they are ready.  I am long on QTWW and will set a trailing stop when it turns positive for me.  As soon as controlling entities let go, this one will run. 

Current Holdings



Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.7679 -0.253 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.26 -0.0016 N/A
UALNO Option 0.10 0.02 -0.08 N/A







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Trades 2/05/10

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Well, we had the day I anticipated, and the dow nearly hit 10k again.  SKF did well but we lost in on a very conservative sell stop.  This on a one day bear market rally.  The put options below should pan out before expiration if things continue the way they are.   I have to say though, UAUA is showing exceptional resilience, bouncing between the mid 12's and 14.00 per share.  I had not expected that.

Current Holdings


Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.775 -0.2459 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.2684 -0.076 N/A
TSWNH Option 0.25 0.35 +0.10 N/A
UALNO Option 0.10 0.02 -0.08 N/A



---update 2:20PM---
As the dow dropped WELL below the 10k mark...

UAUA has stayed within an .80 cent range despite the Dow dropping 800 or so points.  This amazes me.  My put option should have worked out similar to that of TS.  Ether way, my opions investments are minimal.Usually 10 contracts or less.

I Sold the put options on TS (TSWNH) just after the 2 pm bounce.  I got $1.00 per share (cost basis $0.25)  essetially quadrupling my investment.  I am checking how much Feb. calls are going for - strike 45.

TS is notoriously good for bouncing back, all in all, a very good performer.


Here is the Option Chain for TS calls.


click to enlarge

3PM - I have a buy limit on TSWBI - Ts - Feb. Call Options - Strike 45
Current price is 0.25 (as it was for the put we bought). 
Our buy limit is 0.21

If things fall apart today, we will add TS call options to our portfolio.  Again - risk no more than you would be comfortable with on a normal sell stop-loss. 

We can adust our buy limit tomorrow if things continue down - we want in cheap.
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Trades 2/03/10

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We had a surprise up day yesterday.  Not good for our short positions nor our put options.  

SKF sold off on the sell stop of 23.60 for a tolerable loss.  It seemed that traders were very slow to dump it as if all were thinking the market may take a turn downward as it has for the last 8 or so sessions. 


Nothing new until we see a move in one direction or another. 

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Trades 2/02/10

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Well, after so many days in the red, we finally pulled off a positive day.  For that very reason, we have sell stops on the larger positions.  SKF didn't even come close to our sell stop.  If the day starts off positive again today, the new rally of late might be believable, and we could lose that position for a tolerable loss.  My guess is that negative sentiment will resume. 

There was much positive news on QTWW and SSN today and the reaction was kept under control.

I am still looking at more short ETF positions, if we get a positive start.  The strategy as usual is to set a buy stop just above current price and follow it down until the reversal comes.  If it doesn't come, we don't enter into new positions

Current Holdings


Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.8157 -0.2052 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.2704 -0.056 N/A
SKF Option 24.31 24.00 +0.31 St.23.60 - GTC
TSWNH Option 0.25 0.20 -0.05 N/A
UALNO Option 0.10 0.02 -0.08 N/A


Updates as warranted. . .

Trades 2/01/10

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Just before 11:00AM, I set buy stops on a TS option and on SKF as suggested in my post on Friday.   Both executed and started toward the positive as the day fell apart.  I am placing a sell-stop on SKF after the first 40 minutes of trading today.  I never recommend any trades during the first 30 minutes of the day unless you plan to hold for 10 minutes - quick profit on a mover.

It's doubtful that my United Airlines options will pan out by February's expiration, but my total investment is less than 1/2 my normal sell stop for the equity itself.   

As I suggested before, risk should be kept at a minimum until we know if the bear market is here to stay.  

Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.7301 -0.2908 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.26 -0.016 N/A
SKF Option 24.31 24.67 +0.365 St.23.60 - GTC
TSWNH Option 0.25 0.30 +0.05 N/A
UALNO Option 0.10 0.02 -0.08 N/A



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Trades 1/29/10

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We finally have a positive open.  But do we believe it?  As I said before, I am completely out of the market.  The current holdings below are not generally moved by where the Dow or S&P are going.  In fact, QTWW has a tendency of moving opposite the markets and opposite regarding good/bad news.   The last time they were cited for non-compliance, the stock ran +0.20 or more if I remember correctly.

So.  It's time to take a look at buying some puts on this slight rise at open.  Regarding options, it is not wise to buy them when the underlying stock is already headed in the direction of your strike price.  We want to buy them cheap and, again, total investment should not exceed what you would normally lose on a sell-stop of the same equity. 

Take TS for example.  This one has been performing very well for a very long time.  The dow is up 75 points today and TS is up 1.20

If we believe that there is room for further downside in the markets. then we can set a limit buy for TS puts, strike 40, Feb or March (Feb. will be cheaper).  When today's peak falls apart or at a positive close, we get in.  TS will drop with the Dow or any other index.  current Feb, 40 puts are trading at.  0.36 - symbol TSWNH.   Let's set a buy limit for .25 as the market climbs today.




Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.79 -0.2309 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.26 -0.016 N/A
UALNO Option 0.10 0.05 -0.05 N/A


If you have a large amount of margin equity to play with you can also look at setting buy stops just above current price for the following short ETF's.  as they are dropping related to the rise in major indexes.   
SRS, SKF, QID

I regularly trade SKF and have been since just after it hit 188.00 per share last year.  If things fall apart, a small quantity of any of these can really pay off.


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Trades 1/28/10

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It looks as though we have another negative day in the making.  I'm standing pat, until I see some volatility. Without movement there is no money. 


Symbol Security Entry Last Change Exit Plan
QTWW Stock 1.02 0.7506 -0.2703 N/A
SSN Stock 0.276 0.2774 -0.0014 N/A
UALNO Option 0.10 0.05 -0.05 N/A


Daze Trader refers to my style of trading.  I am rarely in anything for more than a few 'days'.
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Update...

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At 10:24AM, there was a 354,000 - share purchase of QTWW.  Today's downward slide on Quantum (for no known reason) was followed by a large purchase by one investor.

As I said in earlier posts, this is what I watch for on this stock.  It could be that someone just wanted to toss $300k into a stock that is tanking.  Or it could be that someone just bought to cover (BTC) a short position.  If the latter, then the price of QTWW is free to run it's course now.

I set a buy stop 2 cents above current price starting at 10:00.   Then I continued to cancel the order and adjust it down as the stock went down.  The steeper the dive, the tighter the buy stop as seen in the image below.   (you will also note the volume spike mentioned above)






The lines you see are the stops I had set while QTWW was in a nose dive.  As soon as it reversed directions, I got another chunk at .79 and lowered my basis to 1.0209

-- update --

11:30AM - I don't see the expected change in trading pattern.  This could mean that today's volume spike was only a partial BTC.


As for compliance, company fundimentals, etc., I always attend the conference calls of the stocks I watch closely. 




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Trades 1/27/10

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Premarket:
Futures are up slightly, and world markets are still in the red, though I don't see any triple digit losses.  We have New Home Sales today and, again, Obama is going to open his mouth, which could be another disaster.

Wednesdays are usually consolidation days, but I think today will be different.   We are down about 600 points on the Dow, and I think that Obama's comments on banking had a lot to do with that.  Is this drop a change in sentiment?  Or was it just a combination of some bad news from the banking sector along with the president opening his mouth on the subject.  Time will tell.

If we see a dip at open, look at buying call options.  Things may turn back toward the positive, and the dow could pop back up to 10,700+

If we start out strong, I am looking at Gold and Silver as the prices seem to have started back up.

Yesterday SVA sold off on a Trailing stop.  Not having gone up very much, it turned out the same as if it had been set as a normal stop-loss order. 

For the most part, I am out of the market, keeping only small cap equities and limiting risk with options.  I will have more ideas as the market becomes more volatile. (which is where I grow my portfolio).

Current Holdings

Symbol
Security
Entry
Last
Change
Exit Plan
QTWW
Stock
1.08
0.91
-0.1426
N/A
SSN
Stock
0.276
0.2502
-0.0258
N/A
UALNO
Option
0.10
0.03
-0.07
N/A


Note: The change column describes the most recent day's change in value.


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Trades 1/26/10

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Although the day close in the green yesterday, sentiment seems to the downside.  Myself included, there are many traders on the sidelines waiting to see if the bears will take over or if this is just a momentary glitch in the unsupported rally since November. 

My guess is that the markets will surprise us again and head upward. For protection in either direction, I have set a trailing stop on SVA.  I gave it .25 cents to the down side and it's trailing by  .50 cents to the upside.  If the bears take over, the loss will be tolerable. If there is a decided bull run, the sell stop will be adjusted upward with the price. 

As I mentioned in previous posts, sell stops on QTWW are dangerous.  I have always made money on this stock, and it will run again.  There is nothing fundamentally wrong with this company and it is always good for a volatility play. The trick is, you have to watch it because the spurts are quick and unrelenting.  Like my friend at chribstrades, I usually sell early to my own detriment.

Oil is now right now, yet SSN is recovering from last month's public offering, yet it hit .30 yesterday.


Current Holdings

Symbol
Security
Entry
Last
Change
Exit Plan
QTWW
Stock
1.08
0.915
-0.1376
N/A
SSN
Stock
0.276
0.252
-0.024
N/A
SVA
Stock
7.43
6.97
-0.46
Stop 6.69
UALNO
Option
0.10
0.03
-0.07
N/A


Note: The change column describes the most recent day's change in value.

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Trades 1/25/10

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The market is flat to choppy today.  So far the Dow is up 52 points yet most stocks that I usually watch are down quite a bit.  This inverted action has been the norm as of late.

Nothing new today.  We are waiting to see if UAUA drops into February in order to grab some profit on the put options.  Also, I am adding a trailing stop to SVA in case there is downside follow-though.

SVA - sell stop - 6.69 - trail by .50 - Good Till Closed.







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Trades 1/22/10

.

Well yesterdsay the dow dumped another 213 points. I sold SOLF on a trailing stop at 7.95 and I picked up a healthy chunk of QTWW at 0.96 - Now nearly 50% of my portfolio.

Today's actions is anyone's guess. I would say caution will provail and the downside will extend. But, I have been surprised so many times (as I was Tuesday) when all indicators point to a lower open and we jump to new highs. Nothing has been rational for the last 3 months or so.

Current Holdings

Symbol
Security
Entry
Last
Change
Exit Plan
QTWW
Stock
1.08
0.9855
-0.0945
N/A
SSN
Stock
0.276
0.27
-0.006
N/A
SVA
Stock
7.43
7.24
-0.19
N/A
UALNO
Option
0.10
0.05
-0.05
N/A


I will update ideas after 10:00 a.m.


--Udate 2:00pm--

The market has been flat to negative - more negative...





SVA has survived so far and has even climbed to.7.28 during this tailspin in the last 2hours.   I am thinking about putting a trailing stop on SVA in case things go haywire in either direction.

 Consider:  SVA - Sell stop - 6.99 - trail by .25

QTWW is droping big time, though all the news of late has been very positive.  I have seen it drop upon good news and run up 60-80 cents on bad news.   QTWW is like that.  No sell stops on QTWW, it's too easy to get burned that way.  The price changes radically with very small trades, especially in the last 5 minutes of trading*.  I am planning to buy another chunk.  target .89 or lower.

  QTWW is trading at .92 now at 2:30.
  -I have a buy stop set at .94 right now: ( will adjust that staying at .02 above current )
  -Near the end of the day I will set a limit buy at .05 below current price.

UAUA is surprisingly resilient to the 500-point dive the Dow has taken over the last few days.
On a sharp decline it has hit 12.68.  Today's decline is slow and, with the price of oil dropping, it has climbed to 13.78 at one point.  I own put options, strike 8, February on this one, so if oil does rise along with the falling market - ching ching!



* Minute by minute live trades
- QTWW last minutes of trading.


     caputred 10/21/09                       captured today             

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Note that trades of similar size effect the price of the stock quite differently.



On the left, someone sold 2260 shares causing the price to drop 0.06

On the right, someone sold 3000 shares (at 2:00pm) causing a drop of 0.0031


Left - a purchase of 1900 shares - no effect at all.

Right- a purchase of 800 shares - the price upped 0.0011




QTWW will run up.  Here is a clue:  Whey you see a large spike in volume 900k to 2m at once, then the run will start.   Note that trades of similar size effect the price of the stock quite differently. 




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Trades 1/21/10

The Dow dropped 220+ points at its low yesterday.  The drop came a day late according to my expectations, but I knew it was coming.  Most investors have the feeling that the current market should not be as high as it is.   We'll see where it takes us today.

Premarket, Asia was down and European markets seem to be gaining.  Oil is up slightly and so is premarket trading. Jobless claims have risen unexpectedly. There could very well be some downside today as well.

Current Holdings

Symbol
Security
Entry
Last
Change
Exit Plan
QTWW
Stock
1.1057
1.07
-0.0357
N/A
SOLF
Stock
8.05
7.95
-0.10
St 7.74
SSN
Stock
0.276
0.27
-0.006
N/A
SVA
Stock
7.43
7.51
0.08
N/A
UALNO
Option
0.10
0.05
-0.05
N/A




SVA was a trade idea taken from a blog I follow at chribstrades, which was one of the few positions in my porfolio which did not drop significantly in yesterday's bloodbath.

After close, this article came out with some good and bad news - Sinovac Biotech (SVA) To Offer 8.65M Shares.

Normally when a company offers more shares on the market, stock prices drop significantly due to fear that each share you own will be worth less.   I bought UAUA a few months ago in the mid $6 dollar range after the fallout / sell off. I held it into a new 52 week high.

Premarket, I cancelled the 7.09 sell stop on SVA, because of other news as to why they are raising capital - Partial article quoted:


New Vaccine Order
In January 2010, Sinovac received the fifth purchase order for its H1N1 vaccine, Panflu.1, from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, or MIIT, under the national purchase plan. Under this purchase order, the Company is required to deliver an additional 8.57 million doses of Panflu.1 (15ug/0.5ml) to the Chinese central government, of which 2.33 million doses are expected to be delivered before March 15, 2010, and the balance 6.23 million doses are to be stockpiled by the government in Sinovac's warehouse facility. In aggregate, Sinovac has received orders of Panflu.1 from the Chinese government for a total 21.06 million doses, and 10.23 million doses of Panflu.1 have been delivered to date for the Chinese vaccination campaign. In 2009, Sinovac completed the expansion of its production line used to manufacture the seasonal influenza, H1N1 and H5N1 vaccines, thereby increasing its annual production capacity by approximately 60%.

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Trades 1/20/10

The Dow dropped 100 points in the first six minutes of trading, eliminating that long crawl up that we had yesterday.  It is as if Tuesday never happened.  With all the positive sentiment related to the two major buy-outs yesterday, today those who bought in, are dismayed.


UPDATE 1-Fitch downgrades Kraft, Cadbury on takeover plan
Wed Jan 20, 2010 8:00am EST

A few stocks that have been gaining this morning.

UAUA - United Airlines - gained 0.25 in the first half hour
RDN - Radian - broke out hitting 8.11
C - Citibank - climbed to 3.60

I usually buy performing stocks when the market dips, as was my strategy for C yesterday.  The market didn't dip yesterday and C gained some ground.  Today C dropped a bit but is gaining in spite of the gap down and downward trend first hour.

RDN broke out early on, in spite of the gap down, and may be worth buying if this is truly a dip.

If this is an extension of the downward trend we had seen last week, then we should be joining the crowd, looking for a good candidate to short.

I already own puts purchased when the Dow neared 10,700 a week or so ago..
UAUA, February, strike 8
TS, January, strike 40

Update...

Updating the day, markets opened higher due to several large deals. All indicators pointed to a lower open as I said in my last post, but the market reacted with heavy buying on CBY and CFL.

Investors.com - Major Indexes Open Higher: "Industrial conglomerate Tyco International (TYC) on Monday announced plans to spend $1.9 billion to buy Broadview Security, which operates for Brink's Home Security Holdings (CFL)"

My guess is that the markets will return to their downward trend after the buying frenzy is over related to the above mentioned buy-outs.

The strategy I laid out for C did not play out because the markets did not open lower.

We have not hit our buy stops on RDN or SOLF as of yet. SOLF is to release 2009 yearly financial data on March 5, and if seculation on that news is positive, the reaction will trigger our buy stop.

Trades 1/19/10

Watching the action before the bell, I suspect a negative start, if not a negative day today.  World markets overnight were all inthe red (except HK which dipped heavily last week).  Oil is down at 76 and change.

That could turn around if Kraft (KFT) finalizes their bid for Cadbury (CBY).  Watch CBY jump if that is the case.

Other big news on Citibank (C) which is reporting a huge loss due to plans of paying off Uncle Sam.
I had thought of shorting C until I looked at the Call volume which is unusually high.  Consider setting a buy stop on C at 3.45 in case the day forgets to continue its downside action of late.
If C drops, I will be setting a buy stop at 0.08 above current price.  I will be adjusting that stop as the stock drops, hoping to catch the bottom as investors over react to the news.

Solarfun Power Holdings (SOLF) and Radian Group Inc. (RDN) both had very good runs until the market started downward. These two could recover quite nicely, if the market trend should turn around. Consider the following buy stops.

RDN -  open 7.78 - buy stop 8.06 - sell stop 7.76
SOLF - open 8.30 - buy stop 8.65 - sell stop 8.29

Trading Platforms

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Key factors to look for in a broker:

Trustworthiness - is this company that will be around? Do they have difficulties with the SEC?

Speedy execution - especially if you use Market Orders regularly.

Commissions - reasonable commissions are especially important if you make 30+ trades per month as I do.

Limits and Margin requirements - minimum account balances are required at many brokers.

The platform and ease of use - what do they offer as part of the service.

My main broker has a $2500 minimum balance, the interest is pennies per month, commissions are $2.50 per trade (stocks) and $0.50 per option contract.  They offer excellent execution time, usually 3 to five seconds and the platform allows me to see every trade that occurs as it occurs.

My secondary account offers no minimum, a pricey interest rate and they charge $4.50 per trade. Execution time is not that great, so I never use Market Orders.

One final difference is whether or not they allow a wide range of stocks to be shorted.  Both of my accounts allow shorting of very few stocks.

Other Automated Orders

To be written

Trailing Stop Order

To be written

Options: Sell a Call

To be written

Options: Buy a Call

Symbol Security Entry
Price
Last Change Exit Plan
MAC 33.48 33.70 +0.7% 32.77 N/A
SVA 7.51 7.51 0 7.27 N/A
MZZ 21.11 20.76 -1.7% 20.42 N/A

Options: Buy a Put

To be written

Option Chains & buy examples

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United Air Lines (UAUA) has recently hit a 52 week high of 14.07 per share.   I bought both put and call options highlighted below in the option chain.  Personally, I feel the stock will go to at least 9.00 per share by late February, but there is talk on the street about heavy "call volume", meaning that popular opinion says the stock will go to 20.00.

Below, I will talk about possible scenarios based on 1 option contract in either direction, referring to the the markings I have made on the option chain for UAUA - expiration Feb. 2010. ( my actual quantity will not be discussed ).




click to enlarge

Put Option: (right side in the purple box)

Current trading price of UAUA is $13.25

I selected UALNO, strike $8.00, for February 2010.

I paid $5.00 for control of 100 shares of UAUA until February 19, 2010 ($0.05 x 100 = $5.00)

This is how it would look in my portfolio:


click to enlarge


If the price of UAUA continues to rise, I will lose $5.00

If it falls, the value of my option will go up (which I can sell at any time)

If it falls to $7.95, I am even money (I paid $5.00, can buy 100 shares for $795 and sell them for $800)

If it falls to $7.00, I can exercise the option, buy 100 shares for $700, and sell them for $800.  The profit would be $95.00 (I paid $5.00 for the contract and made $100 on the trade - $100-$5=$95)


Call Option: (Left side in the blue box)

Current trading price of UAUA is $13.25

I selected UALBY, strike $17.00, for February 2010.

I paid $35.00 for control of 100 shares of UAUA until February 19, 2010 ($0.35 x 100 = $35.00)

This is how it would look in my portfolio:


click to enlarge

If the price of UAUA continues to fall, I will lose $35.00

If it rises, the value of my option will go up (which I can sell at any time)

If it rises to $17.35, I am even money (I paid $35.00, can buy 100 shares for $1700 and sell them for $1735)

If it rises to $18.00, I can exercise the option, buy 100 shares for $1700, and sell them for $1800.  The profit would be $65.00 (I paid $35.00 for the contract and made $100 on the trade - $100-$35=$65)

If I like I can keep the shares and hope it goes to $20.00 per share or even higher.  After exercising my option, I can treat UAUA like any other stock purchase.


Summary:

The worst thing that could happen is a situation where UAUA trades flat over the next 35 days.  Because I bought both, I would make nothing on either.   I could sell them both before expiration and would lose the commissions paid.

What will probably happen...
The stock will develop a trend in the next week or so, and I will will exit one of the option positions (or just let it expire worthless).

Note:
I would not recommend buying both Puts and Calls at the same time.  I have done it only because my belief is quite opposite than the consensus.





Options:

---

Low risk Stocks and Options trading:


Many people say that options are risky, and that can be true depending on how a trader plays them. If you buy an options contract, you could potentially lose your entire investment. Sounds scary, but it is really no different than buying any stock, then deciding how much you are willing to tolerate regarding price drop.


I always have and idea of how much I am willing to lose when I buy a stock. Many times, I set a sell stop right after purchasing a stock. That protects capital and limits my risk.


When I buy an option, the entire cost of my options contracts could be lost. Therefore, I make sure that my total cost of the contracts is no more than I would normally tolerate when setting a sell stop.






Options explained:


I don't like to spend money before I have made it. For that reason, I will only cover the types of options trades that don't put large amounts of borrowed money at risk. Those being: Buying Calls, Buying Puts, and Selling Calls.


There are many complex explanations for options. Mine is basic and complete


For every option contract, there is a Seller and a Buyer (sellers are sometimes called writers)


Each contract covers control of 100 shares of stock.



When to buy


You buy Call options when you think the price of X stock will rise above Y dollars per share by Z date.


You buy Put options when you think the price of X stock will fall below Y dollars per share by Z date.


You sell/write Call options contracts when you already own 100 (or more) shares of X stock and you think the stock price will NOT rise above Y dollars per share by Z date.


If you are correct in your thinking, then you make money.


  X is a stock symbol such as GOOG
  Y is the price per share such as $624.00 – referred to as the “Strike” price.
  Z is the expiration date – options expire once per month.




The result:


After you buy an option, it will show up in your portfolio just like a stock does (the symbol will be different). The value of the option will move up or down during the course of each day, and you can sell the option any time you like via Market, Stop, Limit orders or any other orders allowed by your broker. (by USA rules)


Expiration:


If the stock price has not gone the way you thought, your option contracts will expire worthless. The option remains “out of the money” at expiration.


If you are showing a profit on your options, referred to as “in the money”, and you choose to keep the options until expiration, you must either sell or exercise the option before its expiration. This means...


If you bought call options, and the stock price is well above your strike price, you can purchase 100 shares of stock for each option you own at the strike price.


If you bought put options, and the stock price is well below your strike price, you can sell 100 shares of stock for each option you own at the strike price.


If you sold/wrote call options, and the stock price has not exceeded the strike price, then you keep your stock and keep the premium paid by the buyer.



A detailed explanation with examples of each to appear in later posts.

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Sell Short & BTC

---
The word "short" has several meanings within stocks/options trading.  This post covers short selling stocks and buying to cover.   It's like a negative version of buying and selling stocks.


Entering a short position:

You can short a stock just as you can buy a stock but with the opposite intention. For simplicity, this example is a market order. I will explain the entry and exit of your position (stops and limits can also be used, but you should first understand the concept of shorting stocks).


Let's say you don't own a certain stock, but you think it will go down. The stock is currently at $10.00, but horrible news about the company just came out.

Enter the order as seen below:


click to enlarge



The stock will short at $10.00 (or reasonably close upon confirming the order)
What this means is the following:
You just sold 100 shares of the stock, though you never owned it.
It will show up in your portfolio as -$1000.00


If the stock price goes down to $9.00 and you close out the trade, you will have made $100.00

If the price goes up to $11.00 and you close out the trade, you will have lost $100.00



Closing out a short position:


To get that short position out of your portfolio, you will have to use “buy to cover” this might show on your interface as “cover” or “BTC”.


Let's say you shorted the stock when it was at $10.00 per share, and it's at $9.00 now.


Enter the order as seen below:


click to enlarge

You have now bought 100 shares to cover those you sold. Nothing will be in your portfolio after execution because you had sold stock that you didn't own (the short) and now, you are covering those shares (BTC).




Stop order: Selling

---
This is sometimes called a stop/loss order.


You own 100 shares of a stock that is currently trading for $10.00 per share, and the price has been falling or you think it may fall.
You may set a stop to limit your loss in case it drops.
--or--
You may have considerable profit showing on this stock and you want to conserve a certain amount of that profit, yet allow the stock to fluctuate a bit.

You want to sell the stock automatically if the price hits $ 9.85
“Day” means the order is only good for today.
“GTC” means the order will be Good Till Canceled (in could execute 3 weeks from now or more).


Enter the Symbol, Quantity, Type (Stop), and enter 9.85 in the Stop field.  Click "Sell" and confirm the order.





click to enlarge


The stock will be sold when the price drops to $9.85
You will no longer own it if it hits $9.85 even if it dips and then rises again. Let's hope you picked the point at which the upside potential has been exhausted.



Note:  Some trading platforms execute Sell Stop / Stop-loss orders based on the "Last Traded Price" and other platforms use the stock's "Bid" price when executing this type of order.  Check with your broker to find out which execution method applies.


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