Trades 3/12/10

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A flat day yesterday with a close to the positives. The dow 90 points from it's peak, that is to say, if it continues its pattern range,  10,000 -10,700 .

Watching for a gap down on BCON and will buy another chunk between .39 and .41

I have a GTC buy limit set on QTWW if it dips under .70 - but it doesn't look like the controlling entity is driving it down any further.  They have all but killed any volume whatsoever.  As a matter of fact, there was a 140,000 share spike at close, which could spell the end to this relentless downward trend.

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.7685	-0.2270	N/A
BCON	Stock	0.44	0.435	-0.005	Stop 0.37

I am watching C which rarely moves but a few cents per day - trading over 1 billion per day now. It could be worth a buy because it usually chooses a direction and stays with it.   I have been burned on that one before and it is more for long term.  I may consider a call, strike 5.00 if I can get it cheap enough. 

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Trades 3/11/10

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As I mentioned, I think we will drop a few hundred points in the next few days.  I was looking at UAUA options as the calls will be hitting their mark soon, but it never quite hit 20.00.   I opted to look at another small cap that I watch.

I set BCON to buy at .44 - which is a break out.   These stocks are not (so) influenced by large changes in the major indexes.  This one has been due for a while, so it should do well.  What worries me is if they make a public offering.   For that reason I will have a stop on it.

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.7586	-0.2623	N/A
BCON	Stock	0.44	0.44	+0.0	Stop .37

I also plan to buy more if it drops near day's end or gaps down in the morning tomorrow.  Also  note that BCON will have a conference call Monday before the open.   This could cause a fairly big move in price in either direction, but the sell stop will cover us to prevent any large scale losses.

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Trades 1/20/10

The Dow dropped 100 points in the first six minutes of trading, eliminating that long crawl up that we had yesterday.  It is as if Tuesday never happened.  With all the positive sentiment related to the two major buy-outs yesterday, today those who bought in, are dismayed.


UPDATE 1-Fitch downgrades Kraft, Cadbury on takeover plan
Wed Jan 20, 2010 8:00am EST

A few stocks that have been gaining this morning.

UAUA - United Airlines - gained 0.25 in the first half hour
RDN - Radian - broke out hitting 8.11
C - Citibank - climbed to 3.60

I usually buy performing stocks when the market dips, as was my strategy for C yesterday.  The market didn't dip yesterday and C gained some ground.  Today C dropped a bit but is gaining in spite of the gap down and downward trend first hour.

RDN broke out early on, in spite of the gap down, and may be worth buying if this is truly a dip.

If this is an extension of the downward trend we had seen last week, then we should be joining the crowd, looking for a good candidate to short.

I already own puts purchased when the Dow neared 10,700 a week or so ago..
UAUA, February, strike 8
TS, January, strike 40

Update...

Updating the day, markets opened higher due to several large deals. All indicators pointed to a lower open as I said in my last post, but the market reacted with heavy buying on CBY and CFL.

Investors.com - Major Indexes Open Higher: "Industrial conglomerate Tyco International (TYC) on Monday announced plans to spend $1.9 billion to buy Broadview Security, which operates for Brink's Home Security Holdings (CFL)"

My guess is that the markets will return to their downward trend after the buying frenzy is over related to the above mentioned buy-outs.

The strategy I laid out for C did not play out because the markets did not open lower.

We have not hit our buy stops on RDN or SOLF as of yet. SOLF is to release 2009 yearly financial data on March 5, and if seculation on that news is positive, the reaction will trigger our buy stop.

Trades 1/19/10

Watching the action before the bell, I suspect a negative start, if not a negative day today.  World markets overnight were all inthe red (except HK which dipped heavily last week).  Oil is down at 76 and change.

That could turn around if Kraft (KFT) finalizes their bid for Cadbury (CBY).  Watch CBY jump if that is the case.

Other big news on Citibank (C) which is reporting a huge loss due to plans of paying off Uncle Sam.
I had thought of shorting C until I looked at the Call volume which is unusually high.  Consider setting a buy stop on C at 3.45 in case the day forgets to continue its downside action of late.
If C drops, I will be setting a buy stop at 0.08 above current price.  I will be adjusting that stop as the stock drops, hoping to catch the bottom as investors over react to the news.

Solarfun Power Holdings (SOLF) and Radian Group Inc. (RDN) both had very good runs until the market started downward. These two could recover quite nicely, if the market trend should turn around. Consider the following buy stops.

RDN -  open 7.78 - buy stop 8.06 - sell stop 7.76
SOLF - open 8.30 - buy stop 8.65 - sell stop 8.29