Trades 1/27/10

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Premarket:
Futures are up slightly, and world markets are still in the red, though I don't see any triple digit losses.  We have New Home Sales today and, again, Obama is going to open his mouth, which could be another disaster.

Wednesdays are usually consolidation days, but I think today will be different.   We are down about 600 points on the Dow, and I think that Obama's comments on banking had a lot to do with that.  Is this drop a change in sentiment?  Or was it just a combination of some bad news from the banking sector along with the president opening his mouth on the subject.  Time will tell.

If we see a dip at open, look at buying call options.  Things may turn back toward the positive, and the dow could pop back up to 10,700+

If we start out strong, I am looking at Gold and Silver as the prices seem to have started back up.

Yesterday SVA sold off on a Trailing stop.  Not having gone up very much, it turned out the same as if it had been set as a normal stop-loss order. 

For the most part, I am out of the market, keeping only small cap equities and limiting risk with options.  I will have more ideas as the market becomes more volatile. (which is where I grow my portfolio).

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.08	0.91	-0.1426	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.2502	-0.0258	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.03	-0.07	N/A

Note: The change column describes the most recent day's change in value.

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Trades 1/26/10

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Although the day close in the green yesterday, sentiment seems to the downside.  Myself included, there are many traders on the sidelines waiting to see if the bears will take over or if this is just a momentary glitch in the unsupported rally since November. 

My guess is that the markets will surprise us again and head upward. For protection in either direction, I have set a trailing stop on SVA.  I gave it .25 cents to the down side and it's trailing by  .50 cents to the upside.  If the bears take over, the loss will be tolerable. If there is a decided bull run, the sell stop will be adjusted upward with the price. 

As I mentioned in previous posts, sell stops on QTWW are dangerous.  I have always made money on this stock, and it will run again.  There is nothing fundamentally wrong with this company and it is always good for a volatility play. The trick is, you have to watch it because the spurts are quick and unrelenting.  Like my friend at chribstrades, I usually sell early to my own detriment.

Oil is now right now, yet SSN is recovering from last month's public offering, yet it hit .30 yesterday.

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.08	0.915	-0.1376	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.252	-0.024	N/A
SVA	Stock	7.43	6.97	-0.46	Stop 6.69
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.03	-0.07	N/A

Note: The change column describes the most recent day's change in value.

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Trades 1/25/10

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The market is flat to choppy today.  So far the Dow is up 52 points yet most stocks that I usually watch are down quite a bit.  This inverted action has been the norm as of late.

Nothing new today.  We are waiting to see if UAUA drops into February in order to grab some profit on the put options.  Also, I am adding a trailing stop to SVA in case there is downside follow-though.

SVA - sell stop - 6.69 - trail by .50 - Good Till Closed.

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Trades 1/22/10

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Well yesterdsay the dow dumped another 213 points. I sold SOLF on a trailing stop at 7.95 and I picked up a healthy chunk of QTWW at 0.96 - Now nearly 50% of my portfolio.

Today's actions is anyone's guess. I would say caution will provail and the downside will extend. But, I have been surprised so many times (as I was Tuesday) when all indicators point to a lower open and we jump to new highs. Nothing has been rational for the last 3 months or so.

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.08	0.9855	-0.0945	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.27	-0.006	N/A
SVA	Stock	7.43	7.24	-0.19	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.05	-0.05	N/A

I will update ideas after 10:00 a.m.


--Udate 2:00pm--

The market has been flat to negative - more negative...

SVA has survived so far and has even climbed to.7.28 during this tailspin in the last 2hours.   I am thinking about putting a trailing stop on SVA in case things go haywire in either direction.

 Consider:  SVA - Sell stop - 6.99 - trail by .25

QTWW is droping big time, though all the news of late has been very positive.  I have seen it drop upon good news and run up 60-80 cents on bad news.   QTWW is like that.  No sell stops on QTWW, it's too easy to get burned that way.  The price changes radically with very small trades, especially in the last 5 minutes of trading*.  I am planning to buy another chunk.  target .89 or lower.

  QTWW is trading at .92 now at 2:30.

  -I have a buy stop set at .94 right now: ( will adjust that staying at .02 above current )

  -Near the end of the day I will set a limit buy at .05 below current price.

UAUA is surprisingly resilient to the 500-point dive the Dow has taken over the last few days.

On a sharp decline it has hit 12.68.  Today's decline is slow and, with the price of oil dropping, it has climbed to 13.78 at one point.  I own put options, strike 8, February on this one, so if oil does rise along with the falling market - ching ching!

* Minute by minute live trades
- QTWW last minutes of trading.

     caputred 10/21/09                       captured today             

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Note that trades of similar size effect the price of the stock quite differently.



On the left, someone sold 2260 shares causing the price to drop 0.06

On the right, someone sold 3000 shares (at 2:00pm) causing a drop of 0.0031


Left - a purchase of 1900 shares - no effect at all.

Right- a purchase of 800 shares - the price upped 0.0011




QTWW will run up.  Here is a clue:  Whey you see a large spike in volume 900k to 2m at once, then the run will start.   Note that trades of similar size effect the price of the stock quite differently. 

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Trades 1/21/10

The Dow dropped 220+ points at its low yesterday.  The drop came a day late according to my expectations, but I knew it was coming.  Most investors have the feeling that the current market should not be as high as it is.   We'll see where it takes us today.

Premarket, Asia was down and European markets seem to be gaining.  Oil is up slightly and so is premarket trading. Jobless claims have risen unexpectedly. There could very well be some downside today as well.

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.1057	1.07	-0.0357	N/A
SOLF	Stock	8.05	7.95	-0.10	St 7.74
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.27	-0.006	N/A
SVA	Stock	7.43	7.51	0.08	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.05	-0.05	N/A

SVA was a trade idea taken from a blog I follow at chribstrades, which was one of the few positions in my porfolio which did not drop significantly in yesterday's bloodbath.

After close, this article came out with some good and bad news - Sinovac Biotech (SVA) To Offer 8.65M Shares.

Normally when a company offers more shares on the market, stock prices drop significantly due to fear that each share you own will be worth less.   I bought UAUA a few months ago in the mid $6 dollar range after the fallout / sell off. I held it into a new 52 week high.

Premarket, I cancelled the 7.09 sell stop on SVA, because of other news as to why they are raising capital - Partial article quoted:


New Vaccine Order
In January 2010, Sinovac received the fifth purchase order for its H1N1 vaccine, Panflu.1, from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, or MIIT, under the national purchase plan. Under this purchase order, the Company is required to deliver an additional 8.57 million doses of Panflu.1 (15ug/0.5ml) to the Chinese central government, of which 2.33 million doses are expected to be delivered before March 15, 2010, and the balance 6.23 million doses are to be stockpiled by the government in Sinovac's warehouse facility. In aggregate, Sinovac has received orders of Panflu.1 from the Chinese government for a total 21.06 million doses, and 10.23 million doses of Panflu.1 have been delivered to date for the Chinese vaccination campaign. In 2009, Sinovac completed the expansion of its production line used to manufacture the seasonal influenza, H1N1 and H5N1 vaccines, thereby increasing its annual production capacity by approximately 60%.

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