Trades 3/17/10

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The Dow inched near 10,700 again yesterday. If true to form, it should go down from here.  

The price of QTWW hit .68 twice today, and as I mentioned, there is a buy limit set on QTWW at 0.67 in order to lower the basis a bit more.   If that one executes, I will be setting another for .65

Where UAUA is going is anyone's guess, which is why I have options on both sides.  Once a direction is clear, one of those options will be dumped.   Let's hope it doesn't stagnate until mid April.  

I have seen no price movement on TS, AAPL, SSN or GA.  I am looking at shorting GSS if it goes near 4.00 and RDN if it nears 12.00 to 12.50 range.  

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.7002	-0.3207	N/A
BCON	Stock	0.44	0.41	-0.03	Stop 0.37
UAUA APR 25 CALL	Option	0.18	0.22	+0.04	N/A
UAUA APR 15 PUT	Option	0.23	0.18	-0.05	N/A

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Trades 2/05/10

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Well, we had the day I anticipated, and the dow nearly hit 10k again.  SKF did well but we lost in on a very conservative sell stop.  This on a one day bear market rally.  The put options below should pan out before expiration if things continue the way they are.   I have to say though, UAUA is showing exceptional resilience, bouncing between the mid 12's and 14.00 per share.  I had not expected that.

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.775	-0.2459	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.2684	-0.076	N/A
TSWNH	Option	0.25	0.35	+0.10	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.02	-0.08	N/A

---update 2:20PM---
As the dow dropped WELL below the 10k mark...

UAUA has stayed within an .80 cent range despite the Dow dropping 800 or so points.  This amazes me.  My put option should have worked out similar to that of TS.  Ether way, my opions investments are minimal.Usually 10 contracts or less.

I Sold the put options on TS (TSWNH) just after the 2 pm bounce.  I got $1.00 per share (cost basis $0.25)  essetially quadrupling my investment.  I am checking how much Feb. calls are going for - strike 45.

TS is notoriously good for bouncing back, all in all, a very good performer.


Here is the Option Chain for TS calls.

click to enlarge

3PM - I have a buy limit on TSWBI - Ts - Feb. Call Options - Strike 45

Current price is 0.25 (as it was for the put we bought). 

Our buy limit is 0.21

If things fall apart today, we will add TS call options to our portfolio.  Again - risk no more than you would be comfortable with on a normal sell stop-loss. 

We can adust our buy limit tomorrow if things continue down - we want in cheap.

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Trades 2/02/10

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Well, after so many days in the red, we finally pulled off a positive day.  For that very reason, we have sell stops on the larger positions.  SKF didn't even come close to our sell stop.  If the day starts off positive again today, the new rally of late might be believable, and we could lose that position for a tolerable loss.  My guess is that negative sentiment will resume. 

There was much positive news on QTWW and SSN today and the reaction was kept under control.

I am still looking at more short ETF positions, if we get a positive start.  The strategy as usual is to set a buy stop just above current price and follow it down until the reversal comes.  If it doesn't come, we don't enter into new positions

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.8157	-0.2052	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.2704	-0.056	N/A
SKF	Option	24.31	24.00	+0.31	St.23.60 - GTC
TSWNH	Option	0.25	0.20	-0.05	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.02	-0.08	N/A

Updates as warranted. . .

Trades 2/01/10

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Just before 11:00AM, I set buy stops on a TS option and on SKF as suggested in my post on Friday.   Both executed and started toward the positive as the day fell apart.  I am placing a sell-stop on SKF after the first 40 minutes of trading today.  I never recommend any trades during the first 30 minutes of the day unless you plan to hold for 10 minutes - quick profit on a mover.

It's doubtful that my United Airlines options will pan out by February's expiration, but my total investment is less than 1/2 my normal sell stop for the equity itself.   

As I suggested before, risk should be kept at a minimum until we know if the bear market is here to stay.  

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.7301	-0.2908	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.26	-0.016	N/A
SKF	Option	24.31	24.67	+0.365	St.23.60 - GTC
TSWNH	Option	0.25	0.30	+0.05	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.02	-0.08	N/A

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Trades 1/20/10

The Dow dropped 100 points in the first six minutes of trading, eliminating that long crawl up that we had yesterday.  It is as if Tuesday never happened.  With all the positive sentiment related to the two major buy-outs yesterday, today those who bought in, are dismayed.


UPDATE 1-Fitch downgrades Kraft, Cadbury on takeover plan
Wed Jan 20, 2010 8:00am EST

A few stocks that have been gaining this morning.

UAUA - United Airlines - gained 0.25 in the first half hour
RDN - Radian - broke out hitting 8.11
C - Citibank - climbed to 3.60

I usually buy performing stocks when the market dips, as was my strategy for C yesterday.  The market didn't dip yesterday and C gained some ground.  Today C dropped a bit but is gaining in spite of the gap down and downward trend first hour.

RDN broke out early on, in spite of the gap down, and may be worth buying if this is truly a dip.

If this is an extension of the downward trend we had seen last week, then we should be joining the crowd, looking for a good candidate to short.

I already own puts purchased when the Dow neared 10,700 a week or so ago..
UAUA, February, strike 8
TS, January, strike 40