Trades 4/7/10

---

As the Dow nears its 11,000 ceiling and bounces off of it, many have been wondering where all this strength is coming from.  Many of the stocks I regularly trade have been active, yet those I hold have been penny bound.

Having bought both sides of the coin on UAUA, it has stagnated in the 19.20 to 20.20 range after jumping $6.00 since I last sold the stock.   The options I hold are a small fraction of the gains made, selling it on a trailing stop in January. 

The surprise has been RDN, which is usually very volatile and rarely stays at its top or bottom for more than a few days.

After holding at $224 for two weeks,  AAPL jumped again.  I sold this one in January for a $20 per share gain and neglected to buy the dip at 190 again.

Yesterday, SSN popped for its second leg up, hitting .85 - sure to be short lived.  See the chart below. 

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	0.9179	0.686	-0.2319	N/A
BCON	Stock	0.44	0.4422	0.0022	N/A
UAL.Apr.25.Call	Option	0.18	0.04	-0.14	N/A
RDN.Apr.10.Put	Option	0.10	0.05	-0.05	N/A
UAL.Apr.15.Put	Option	0.23	0.04	-0.19	N/A

I have always doubled up on SSN, but in this case, I would have to say I did not see the second run coming.   SSN hit .37 about 5 days after I sold it at it's peak of .57

I have made the mistake of getting back into this stock too soon many times. I normally buy back in anywhere below .33 and sell between .55 - .60 with .30 being the absolute bottom over the years.   Last time, I held through the dilution and, of course, doubled up with a cost basis of .27 / sale at .57

The following chart shows where I have bought in (Green) and where I got out (red). 

.

Update 3/17/10

---

Both buy limits triggered today and I picked up another couple K of QTWW. 

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	0.9179	0.6545	-0.2633	N/A
BCON	Stock	0.44	0.4151	-0.0249	Stop 0.37
UAUA APR 25 CALL	Option	0.18	0.18	0.00	N/A
UAUA APR 15 PUT	Option	0.23	0.22	-0.01	N/A

.

Trades 3/15/10

We are still hovering near the peak.  I am not saying that we won't go over the top, but the range has been 10,000 to 10,700 - we'll see.  The Fed meeting could throw things either way.


At open:

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.768	-0.2529	N/A
BCON	Stock	0.44	0.456	+0.016	Stop 0.37

BCON reported this morning and there is some volatility there.  My feeling is that it will be upward, if people actually read the report.

QTWW has asked for my vote by the 29th of March regarding officers and whether or not to increase available shares to 440 million.

I have been waiting for UAUA to make a move up (or down) since my last double options purchase.  It neared $20 this morning (which is where the call craze was about a month ago), so, I got both sides of the coin today.

Updated Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.7205	-0.3004	N/A
BCON	Stock	0.44	0.43	-0.01	Stop 0.37
UAUA APR 25 CALL	Option	0.18	0.18	0.00	N/A
UAUA APR 15 PUT	Option	0.15	0.15	0.00	N/A

.

Trades 3/10/10

---

Yesterday, as things peaked, I kept a sell-stop set .02 cents below the current price of SSN.  More than a doubled up, selling it for 0.57.   The stock historically doesn't go much over 0.60, though one time it ran up to 1.08 for a day or two. 

As I said, the Dow has been crawling up near 10,700 and falling - then repeating that cycle.  I am skeptical on buying into those hitting new 52 week highs.   

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.75	-0.2709	N/A

I have QTWW set to buy a considerable chunk if it goes to 0.69

I am looking at UAUA put options for April, though they are somewhat expensive still.  

.

Trades 2/12/10

---

We got an up day! An 'at-a-boy for the Bulls.   My two small caps didn't move much, which is nice if the market is falling, but not so when the Market pushes upward.

I am still undecided on which way the markets will go.  I am watching UAUA hover at it's 52 week high.  My current puts are considered lost - equal to what my sell stop would have been had I bought it.   I am looking at more puts for March 2010 or possibly shorting it.

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.83	-0.1909	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.357	+0.081	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.02	-0.08	N/A

SSN - I have always sold this one tragically early, then watch as I would have tripled the profit I had taken. I will set a sell stop at .35 after SSN breaks .40 (to trail the price by .10)

UAUA - set to sell short at 14.95 in case things fall apart. I will watch put prices and if I can get some puts at .02 to .03 per - I will grab some contracts.  Maybe March, or April.

QTWW will not be sold until the second or third day of the coming run-up - to be sold on a wide trailing stop, in order to give it room to fly.

---update---

Having executed buy limits for the majority of my SSN position at .18 to .22, I am loving this...

.

Trades 2/11/10

---

It was a fairly choppy, flat day yesterday.  The Dow is showing volatility which is what I like.

SSN broke out and UAUA is hitting new 52-week highs. 

I never recommend making buys during the first 30 minutes of trading.  Ideas will be in the form of an update - if any.

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.81	-0.2109	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.37	+0.094	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.02	-0.08	N/A

.

Trades 2/10/10

---

Normally I thrive on a volatile market such as this.  Honestly I have been on the sidelines for a few weeks as things were flat.   I feel we will continue downward at a crawl, just as we climbed at a crawl, with sudden bursts of activity on the way up. 

Today we see another choppy day, and I am comfortable being heavily invested in two stocks that generally don't follow the Dow or any other index. 

Current Holdings - pre-open

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.81	-0.2270	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.2625	-0.0135	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.02	-0.08	N/A

--------update-------

SSN broke out today gapping up significantly the news :  Samson Oil & Gas Advises on the Gene #1-22H Well Progress.   This has pushed me well above my initial purchase price. 

As with QTWW, I started buying SSN when it hit .31 and continued - still buying as it reached .20 - and held through a public offering.  This is a low volume stock which I have been trading for over 4 years.  The company is solid and well positioned for its size. 

Current Holdings - 12:00
.

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.80	-0.2209	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.3543	+0.0783	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.02	-0.08	N/A

.

Trades 2/09/10

---

Still a lot of sentiment to the negative side today.  The market tried to move up but we got another camel hump. 

Big news for UAUA - all positive for a stock that will not fall anyway.  This breaks all tradition of Airlines dropping after the holidays.  With 900 points shaved off the Dow, UAUA has barely reacted and now I can kiss my put options good-bye.  The loss is the same as if I had bought it and sold on a stop loss. 

Despite oil prices, SSN is holding and QTWW is rising a bit but still under control. 

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.81	-0.2270	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.27	-0.006	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.02	-0.08	N/A

.

Trades 2/08/10

---

The market opened choppy today.  It's anyone's guess as to what the next move will be.  I am comfortable staying on the sidelines for now.  My trading style plays major volatility, so flat days won't see any action from me.  

So far the call limit at 0.21 for TS has not executed.

 SSN and QTWW will run up when they are ready.  I am long on QTWW and will set a trailing stop when it turns positive for me.  As soon as controlling entities let go, this one will run. 

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.7679	-0.253	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.26	-0.0016	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.02	-0.08	N/A

.

Trades 2/05/10

---

Well, we had the day I anticipated, and the dow nearly hit 10k again.  SKF did well but we lost in on a very conservative sell stop.  This on a one day bear market rally.  The put options below should pan out before expiration if things continue the way they are.   I have to say though, UAUA is showing exceptional resilience, bouncing between the mid 12's and 14.00 per share.  I had not expected that.

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.775	-0.2459	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.2684	-0.076	N/A
TSWNH	Option	0.25	0.35	+0.10	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.02	-0.08	N/A

---update 2:20PM---
As the dow dropped WELL below the 10k mark...

UAUA has stayed within an .80 cent range despite the Dow dropping 800 or so points.  This amazes me.  My put option should have worked out similar to that of TS.  Ether way, my opions investments are minimal.Usually 10 contracts or less.

I Sold the put options on TS (TSWNH) just after the 2 pm bounce.  I got $1.00 per share (cost basis $0.25)  essetially quadrupling my investment.  I am checking how much Feb. calls are going for - strike 45.

TS is notoriously good for bouncing back, all in all, a very good performer.


Here is the Option Chain for TS calls.

click to enlarge

3PM - I have a buy limit on TSWBI - Ts - Feb. Call Options - Strike 45

Current price is 0.25 (as it was for the put we bought). 

Our buy limit is 0.21

If things fall apart today, we will add TS call options to our portfolio.  Again - risk no more than you would be comfortable with on a normal sell stop-loss. 

We can adust our buy limit tomorrow if things continue down - we want in cheap.

.

Trades 2/02/10

---

Well, after so many days in the red, we finally pulled off a positive day.  For that very reason, we have sell stops on the larger positions.  SKF didn't even come close to our sell stop.  If the day starts off positive again today, the new rally of late might be believable, and we could lose that position for a tolerable loss.  My guess is that negative sentiment will resume. 

There was much positive news on QTWW and SSN today and the reaction was kept under control.

I am still looking at more short ETF positions, if we get a positive start.  The strategy as usual is to set a buy stop just above current price and follow it down until the reversal comes.  If it doesn't come, we don't enter into new positions

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.8157	-0.2052	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.2704	-0.056	N/A
SKF	Option	24.31	24.00	+0.31	St.23.60 - GTC
TSWNH	Option	0.25	0.20	-0.05	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.02	-0.08	N/A

Updates as warranted. . .

Trades 2/01/10

---

Just before 11:00AM, I set buy stops on a TS option and on SKF as suggested in my post on Friday.   Both executed and started toward the positive as the day fell apart.  I am placing a sell-stop on SKF after the first 40 minutes of trading today.  I never recommend any trades during the first 30 minutes of the day unless you plan to hold for 10 minutes - quick profit on a mover.

It's doubtful that my United Airlines options will pan out by February's expiration, but my total investment is less than 1/2 my normal sell stop for the equity itself.   

As I suggested before, risk should be kept at a minimum until we know if the bear market is here to stay.  

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.7301	-0.2908	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.26	-0.016	N/A
SKF	Option	24.31	24.67	+0.365	St.23.60 - GTC
TSWNH	Option	0.25	0.30	+0.05	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.02	-0.08	N/A

.

Trades 1/29/10

---

We finally have a positive open.  But do we believe it?  As I said before, I am completely out of the market.  The current holdings below are not generally moved by where the Dow or S&P are going.  In fact, QTWW has a tendency of moving opposite the markets and opposite regarding good/bad news.   The last time they were cited for non-compliance, the stock ran +0.20 or more if I remember correctly.

So.  It's time to take a look at buying some puts on this slight rise at open.  Regarding options, it is not wise to buy them when the underlying stock is already headed in the direction of your strike price.  We want to buy them cheap and, again, total investment should not exceed what you would normally lose on a sell-stop of the same equity. 

Take TS for example.  This one has been performing very well for a very long time.  The dow is up 75 points today and TS is up 1.20

If we believe that there is room for further downside in the markets. then we can set a limit buy for TS puts, strike 40, Feb or March (Feb. will be cheaper).  When today's peak falls apart or at a positive close, we get in.  TS will drop with the Dow or any other index.  current Feb, 40 puts are trading at.  0.36 - symbol TSWNH.   Let's set a buy limit for .25 as the market climbs today.

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.79	-0.2309	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.26	-0.016	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.05	-0.05	N/A

If you have a large amount of margin equity to play with you can also look at setting buy stops just above current price for the following short ETF's.  as they are dropping related to the rise in major indexes.   

SRS, SKF, QID

I regularly trade SKF and have been since just after it hit 188.00 per share last year.  If things fall apart, a small quantity of any of these can really pay off.

.

Trades 1/28/10

---

It looks as though we have another negative day in the making.  I'm standing pat, until I see some volatility. Without movement there is no money. 

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.02	0.7506	-0.2703	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.2774	-0.0014	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.05	-0.05	N/A

Daze Trader refers to my style of trading.  I am rarely in anything for more than a few 'days'.

.

Trades 1/27/10

---

Premarket:
Futures are up slightly, and world markets are still in the red, though I don't see any triple digit losses.  We have New Home Sales today and, again, Obama is going to open his mouth, which could be another disaster.

Wednesdays are usually consolidation days, but I think today will be different.   We are down about 600 points on the Dow, and I think that Obama's comments on banking had a lot to do with that.  Is this drop a change in sentiment?  Or was it just a combination of some bad news from the banking sector along with the president opening his mouth on the subject.  Time will tell.

If we see a dip at open, look at buying call options.  Things may turn back toward the positive, and the dow could pop back up to 10,700+

If we start out strong, I am looking at Gold and Silver as the prices seem to have started back up.

Yesterday SVA sold off on a Trailing stop.  Not having gone up very much, it turned out the same as if it had been set as a normal stop-loss order. 

For the most part, I am out of the market, keeping only small cap equities and limiting risk with options.  I will have more ideas as the market becomes more volatile. (which is where I grow my portfolio).

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.08	0.91	-0.1426	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.2502	-0.0258	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.03	-0.07	N/A

Note: The change column describes the most recent day's change in value.

.

Trades 1/25/10

---

The market is flat to choppy today.  So far the Dow is up 52 points yet most stocks that I usually watch are down quite a bit.  This inverted action has been the norm as of late.

Nothing new today.  We are waiting to see if UAUA drops into February in order to grab some profit on the put options.  Also, I am adding a trailing stop to SVA in case there is downside follow-though.

SVA - sell stop - 6.69 - trail by .50 - Good Till Closed.

.

Trades 1/22/10

.

Well yesterdsay the dow dumped another 213 points. I sold SOLF on a trailing stop at 7.95 and I picked up a healthy chunk of QTWW at 0.96 - Now nearly 50% of my portfolio.

Today's actions is anyone's guess. I would say caution will provail and the downside will extend. But, I have been surprised so many times (as I was Tuesday) when all indicators point to a lower open and we jump to new highs. Nothing has been rational for the last 3 months or so.

Current Holdings

Symbol	Security	Entry	Last	Change	Exit Plan
QTWW	Stock	1.08	0.9855	-0.0945	N/A
SSN	Stock	0.276	0.27	-0.006	N/A
SVA	Stock	7.43	7.24	-0.19	N/A
UALNO	Option	0.10	0.05	-0.05	N/A

I will update ideas after 10:00 a.m.


--Udate 2:00pm--

The market has been flat to negative - more negative...

SVA has survived so far and has even climbed to.7.28 during this tailspin in the last 2hours.   I am thinking about putting a trailing stop on SVA in case things go haywire in either direction.

 Consider:  SVA - Sell stop - 6.99 - trail by .25

QTWW is droping big time, though all the news of late has been very positive.  I have seen it drop upon good news and run up 60-80 cents on bad news.   QTWW is like that.  No sell stops on QTWW, it's too easy to get burned that way.  The price changes radically with very small trades, especially in the last 5 minutes of trading*.  I am planning to buy another chunk.  target .89 or lower.

  QTWW is trading at .92 now at 2:30.

  -I have a buy stop set at .94 right now: ( will adjust that staying at .02 above current )

  -Near the end of the day I will set a limit buy at .05 below current price.

UAUA is surprisingly resilient to the 500-point dive the Dow has taken over the last few days.

On a sharp decline it has hit 12.68.  Today's decline is slow and, with the price of oil dropping, it has climbed to 13.78 at one point.  I own put options, strike 8, February on this one, so if oil does rise along with the falling market - ching ching!

* Minute by minute live trades
- QTWW last minutes of trading.

     caputred 10/21/09                       captured today             

  ---

Note that trades of similar size effect the price of the stock quite differently.



On the left, someone sold 2260 shares causing the price to drop 0.06

On the right, someone sold 3000 shares (at 2:00pm) causing a drop of 0.0031


Left - a purchase of 1900 shares - no effect at all.

Right- a purchase of 800 shares - the price upped 0.0011




QTWW will run up.  Here is a clue:  Whey you see a large spike in volume 900k to 2m at once, then the run will start.   Note that trades of similar size effect the price of the stock quite differently. 

.

Trades 1/20/10

The Dow dropped 100 points in the first six minutes of trading, eliminating that long crawl up that we had yesterday.  It is as if Tuesday never happened.  With all the positive sentiment related to the two major buy-outs yesterday, today those who bought in, are dismayed.


UPDATE 1-Fitch downgrades Kraft, Cadbury on takeover plan
Wed Jan 20, 2010 8:00am EST

A few stocks that have been gaining this morning.

UAUA - United Airlines - gained 0.25 in the first half hour
RDN - Radian - broke out hitting 8.11
C - Citibank - climbed to 3.60

I usually buy performing stocks when the market dips, as was my strategy for C yesterday.  The market didn't dip yesterday and C gained some ground.  Today C dropped a bit but is gaining in spite of the gap down and downward trend first hour.

RDN broke out early on, in spite of the gap down, and may be worth buying if this is truly a dip.

If this is an extension of the downward trend we had seen last week, then we should be joining the crowd, looking for a good candidate to short.

I already own puts purchased when the Dow neared 10,700 a week or so ago..
UAUA, February, strike 8
TS, January, strike 40

Option Chains & buy examples

---

United Air Lines (UAUA) has recently hit a 52 week high of 14.07 per share.   I bought both put and call options highlighted below in the option chain.  Personally, I feel the stock will go to at least 9.00 per share by late February, but there is talk on the street about heavy "call volume", meaning that popular opinion says the stock will go to 20.00.

Below, I will talk about possible scenarios based on 1 option contract in either direction, referring to the the markings I have made on the option chain for UAUA - expiration Feb. 2010. ( my actual quantity will not be discussed ).

click to enlarge

Put Option: (right side in the purple box)

Current trading price of UAUA is $13.25

I selected UALNO, strike $8.00, for February 2010.

I paid $5.00 for control of 100 shares of UAUA until February 19, 2010 ($0.05 x 100 = $5.00)

This is how it would look in my portfolio:

click to enlarge

If the price of UAUA continues to rise, I will lose $5.00

If it falls, the value of my option will go up (which I can sell at any time)

If it falls to $7.95, I am even money (I paid $5.00, can buy 100 shares for $795 and sell them for $800)

If it falls to $7.00, I can exercise the option, buy 100 shares for $700, and sell them for $800.  The profit would be $95.00 (I paid $5.00 for the contract and made $100 on the trade - $100-$5=$95)


Call Option: (Left side in the blue box)

Current trading price of UAUA is $13.25

I selected UALBY, strike $17.00, for February 2010.

I paid $35.00 for control of 100 shares of UAUA until February 19, 2010 ($0.35 x 100 = $35.00)

This is how it would look in my portfolio:

click to enlarge

If the price of UAUA continues to fall, I will lose $35.00

If it rises, the value of my option will go up (which I can sell at any time)

If it rises to $17.35, I am even money (I paid $35.00, can buy 100 shares for $1700 and sell them for $1735)

If it rises to $18.00, I can exercise the option, buy 100 shares for $1700, and sell them for $1800.  The profit would be $65.00 (I paid $35.00 for the contract and made $100 on the trade - $100-$35=$65)

If I like I can keep the shares and hope it goes to $20.00 per share or even higher.  After exercising my option, I can treat UAUA like any other stock purchase.


Summary:

The worst thing that could happen is a situation where UAUA trades flat over the next 35 days.  Because I bought both, I would make nothing on either.   I could sell them both before expiration and would lose the commissions paid.

What will probably happen...
The stock will develop a trend in the next week or so, and I will will exit one of the option positions (or just let it expire worthless).

Note:
I would not recommend buying both Puts and Calls at the same time.  I have done it only because my belief is quite opposite than the consensus.